王安冉

突发公共卫生事件的复杂性与社会系统性风险对全球治理提出严峻挑战。本文基于复杂网络理论与传播动力学，建立SIR-UAU双层耦合网络模型，将疾病传播与社会模态变迁的动态交互纳入统一分析体系，通过马尔可夫链方法与蒙特卡洛模拟解析演化规律。其次，模拟政策干预对疾病传播层与社会模态变迁层的影响，提出决策方案。

突发公共卫生事件；SIR-UAU耦合模型；复杂网络

[1] R P,A V.Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks.[J].Physical review letters,2001,86(14):3200-3. [2] Daniel M,Andrea P,Andreas N,et al.Seasonal epidemic spreading on small-world networks:Biennial outbreaks and classical discrete time crystals[J].PHYSICAL REVIEW RESEARCH,2021,3(1). [3] Runbin X,Wah K S C,Wah K D C,et al.Exploring Public Response to COVID-19 on Weibo with LDA Topic Modeling and Sentiment Analysis[J].Data and Information Management,2020,5(1):86-99. [4] Chuanbiao W,Ruiying L,Yan.The spread dynamics model of the interaction between rumors and derivative rumors in emergencies under the control strategy[J].Chaos,Solitons and Fractals:the interdisciplinary journal of Nonlinear Science,and Nonequilibrium and Complex Phenomena,2023,175(P2). [5] Sebastian F,Erez G,Chris,et al.The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaks.[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2009,106(16):6872-7. [6] Clara G,Sergio G,Alex A.Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.[J].Physical review letters,2013,111(12):128701.

点击下载PDF