李佩佩,王瑞霞,谢艳杰,张利红,陈功勋

目的：构建并验证康复期脑性瘫痪（脑瘫）儿童跌倒风险预测模型，为临床跌倒防控提供量化依据。方法：选取2022年1月～2024年1月某三甲医院康复科416例脑瘫患儿，按7:3随机分为建模组292例、验证组124例。采用一般资料表、主观全面营养评估量表（SGNA）、日常生活活动能力量表（ADL）、粗大运动功能分级系统（GMFCS）、Berg平衡量表（BBS）进行评估，通过二元Logistic回归构建跌倒预测模型，以ROC曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、Bootstrap法及外部验证评价模型效能。结果：年龄、ADL评分、Berg评分、SGNA评分、混合/不随意型脑瘫、GMFCS分级、共患病为跌倒独立影响因素；建模组AUC=0.930，验证组AUC=0.928，两组校准检验P均>0.05，模型区分度与校准度良好。结论：该预测模型效能稳定，可用于康复期脑瘫儿童跌倒风险的早期筛查与分层护理。

脑瘫儿童；跌倒；影响因素；Logistic回归；预测模型

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